ITALY –  The global furniture trade experienced a modest rebound in 2024, following a 9% contraction in 2023, according to the latest “World Furniture Outlook 2025/2026” report released by CSIL (Centre for Industrial Studies).

After years of strong growth, the sector has been hit by global economic turbulence, trade policy uncertainty, and weakening consumer demand.

In 2024, international trade in furniture reached a value of approximately USD 178 billion, marking a slight increase in current dollar terms. However, CSIL warns that the outlook for 2025 is grim due to rising tariffs and erratic trade policy decisions, particularly under the protectionist stance of the new U.S. administration.

China continues to lead global furniture exports, followed by Vietnam, Poland, Italy, and Germany. Despite a strong performance in 2021, Chinese exports dropped in 2022 and 2023, with only partial recovery in 2024. On the import side, the U.S. remains the dominant market, accounting for about one-quarter of global imports, or USD 41 billion.

CSIL notes that 24 out of the 100 countries analysed rely on the U.S. as their main export destination. Ten of these send more than 50% of their furniture exports to the U.S. As trade tensions persist, many exporters may be forced to diversify their markets. Disruption in U.S.-China trade is expected to result in significant trade diversion and rising competition in third-country markets.

The report also highlights a downgrade in global GDP forecasts, with growth expected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 2.8% in 2025, before a slight recovery to 3.0% in 2026. These adjustments reflect the impact of trade instability and reduced household purchasing power due to inflation, interest rates, and weak consumer sentiment.

Global furniture consumption in 2024 returned to near-2019 levels in value terms. For 2025, real consumption is projected to remain flat, with only a modest uptick expected in 2026. CSIL cautions that ongoing uncertainty continues to impact investment decisions and demand in the furniture sector.