ITALY –   Global furniture consumption is expected to grow by around 1% in current USD in 2026, according to forecasts from Italian market research institute CSIL. However, the sector will continue to be affected by trade policy uncertainty and the impact of tariffs introduced in mid-October, CSIL said in its World Furniture Outlook 2026.

CSIL warned that the absence of stable trade agreements and ongoing tariff unpredictability are weighing on the outlook for international furniture trade. The institute described current conditions as unprecedented in terms of uncertainty, with continued volatility expected.

The latest report introduces a new Country Vulnerability Index for Furniture Exports (FEXVI), measuring countries’ exposure to external shocks based on trade dependence and competitiveness. Countries with the highest vulnerability scores are those with a strong reliance on exports to the United States.

China remains the world’s largest furniture exporter, followed by Vietnam, Poland, Italy and Germany. After peaking in 2021, Chinese exports declined in 2022 and 2023, partially recovered in 2024, and are estimated to have fallen again in 2025.

The United States is the world’s largest furniture importer, ahead of Germany, the UK, France and the Netherlands. US furniture imports reached USD 41 billion in 2024, accounting for about 25% of global imports, but declined in 2025 amid tariffs and uncertainty. Preliminary data suggest European markets performed relatively better.

CSIL forecasts global GDP growth to ease from 3.2% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, before rising again in 2027. Despite easing risks, the report cautions that persistent uncertainty, protectionism and potential economic shocks could continue to weigh on investment and consumer spending in the furniture sector.