VIETNAM –    Vietnam’s wood industry is under growing strain in 2025 as potential US tariffs, rising logistics costs, and weakening global demand weigh on profits and cast uncertainty over the outlook, according to Vietstock, citing data from the General Department of Customs.

Wood and wood products ranked seventh among Vietnam’s top ten export categories during the first seven months of the year. The United States remained the largest market, accounting for 56% of exports, up 11% year on year. Vietnam’s strong foothold in the US is built on cost advantages, low labor expenses, and the use of 70% domestically sourced materials.

But the US administration’s April proposal of a countervailing tariff of up to 46% has put the sector on high alert. While exporters briefly ramped up output to seize a “golden window” during negotiations, second-quarter results showed that recovery momentum did not fully materialize.

“Most companies are still operating but essentially in a holding pattern,” said Tran Quoc Manh, vice chairman of the Vietnam Handicraft Exporters Association. “Selling prices are falling, product ranges are narrowing, and many customers are delaying deliveries amid uncertainty.”

Beyond the US, the European market continues to shrink, adding further pressure. Dang Quoc Hung, chairman and CEO of Alliance Handicraft and Wooden Fine Art Corporation, warned that shipments are already facing tax-related hurdles and that these issues are likely to persist.

Despite the challenges, the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association remains confident that the country can still achieve its US$18 billion export target for 2025. However, the industry’s heavy reliance on the US market is seen as a major risk. Regulators are urging exporters to diversify, but as Manh noted, “in reality, no market can replace the US in the short term.”